Thursday, September 21, 2017

Aikman Efficiency Ratings

29
AIKMAN RATINGS
Thru Week 12

 
 
The Cowboys, with the best record in the NFL at 10-1, remain atop the Aikman Combined Ratings compiled by STATS for the fourth consecutive week after their Thanksgiving Day win over Washington.  Dallas also is first in Aikman Offense for the third straight week.  
 
The team behind them in both categories is the 6-6 Saints.  That New Orleans has a powerful offense is no surprise with the Drew Brees-led attack either first or second in four (3rd down conversions, 1st downs, offensive points, red-zone efficiency) of the seven Aikman Offense categories.  With an 18th-ranked Aikman defense, they also have enough points to rank 2nd in the tightly-bunched Aikman Combined standings.
 
With the Cardinals being torched by the Falcons, the Ravens returned to 1st in Aikman Defense after a one-week absence.  It is the third straight week that Baltimore and Arizona have alternated for the top spot.
 
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The NFL’s three teams with 9+ wins sit in the top six of the current Aikman Combined, and they are joined by three teams – the Saints, Titans and Steelers – currently hovering near .500 in the standings.
 
The teams leading those three clubs’ respective divisions – Atlanta, Houston and Baltimore – currently rank below them in the Aikman Combined and it will be interesting to see if New Orleans, Tennessee and Pittsburgh put on the strong finishes that their Aikman Combined Ratings scores indicate are possible.
 
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Troy Aikman developed the Aikman Ratings because he noticed that while the NFL ranks offenses and defenses strictly by yards, the factors that actually win games can go far beyond just total real estate gained.
 
Team winning the yardage battle traditionally win about 65% of all games (this year it is just 60%).  After a 14-2 mark in Week 12, the teams with the higher Aikman Game Score are winning 77% of the time.  That’s far superior to the yardage winners, but still below the traditional Aikman average of about 82%.
 
On Thanksgiving, the Cowboys were involved in a textbook example of the kind of game that gave Aikman concern about the NFL’s simple method of ranking offenses.  The Cowboys played turnover-free football, gained 5.4 yards per rush, converted TDs on all four trips to the red zone and beat Washington convincingly, 31-19.  But the Redskins piled up 505 yards (many late in the game) to outgain Dallas, 505 to 353, and advance in the NFL’s rankings.  The Cowboys had the 2nd-highest Aikman Game Score (111.0) of the week, while the Redskins were 13th (91.1) – a more accurate reflection of the final outcome than yards gained.

 
Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 12, 2016
 
                                 --------- Aikman --------       ------- NFL --------
Rank  Record   Team             Combined     Off      Def       Off    Def  Combined
   1    10-1    Cowboys            163.8     98.4     65.4         4     21     25  
   2     5-6    Saints             162.8     96.0     66.9         1     26     27  
   3     6-6    Titans             160.9     93.5     67.4         7     22     29  
   4     9-2    Patriots           159.9     92.0     67.9         6     14     20  
   5     6-5    Steelers           159.3     86.8     72.6        12     18     30  
   6     9-2    Raiders            158.3     91.5     66.9         5     29     34  
   7     6-5    Bills              157.0     90.3     66.8        18     10     28  
   8     4-6-1  Cardinals          156.9     82.1     74.8         9      1     10  
   9     5-6    Eagles             155.1     80.7     74.3        20      8     28  
  10     4-7    Panthers           154.5     83.8     70.7        14     17     31  
  11     6-5    Ravens             154.0     74.8     79.2        23.5    2     25.5
  12     7-3-1  Seahawks           154.0     80.2     73.7        17      7     24  
  13     7-4    Broncos            152.3     78.6     73.7        19      4     23  
  14     7-4    Falcons            151.3     94.6     56.7         3     27     30  
  15     8-3    Giants             151.2     77.4     73.8        21     16     37  
  16     7-4    Dolphins           150.3     81.1     69.2        25     20     45  
  17     8-3    Chiefs             149.6     77.3     72.3        27     28     55  
  18     5-6    Chargers           149.6     82.1     67.5         8     19     27  
  19     7-4    Lions              149.3     86.2     63.1        26     15     41  
  20     6-5    Buccaneers         149.0     81.3     67.6        13     24     37  
  21     5-6    Packers            148.3     86.5     61.8        11     13     24  
  22     6-5    Vikings            148.0     73.5     74.5        32      3     35  
  23     6-4-1  Redskins           147.8     87.5     60.4         2     25     27  
  24     3-7-1  Bengals            147.2     81.3     65.9        10     23     33  
  25     5-6    Colts              145.9     86.8     59.1        15     30     45  
  26     6-5    Texans             142.8     73.9     68.9        29      5     34  
  27     2-9    Bears              141.1     75.3     65.8        16     11     27  
  28     2-9    Jaguars            141.0     77.4     63.6        23.5    6     29.5
  29     3-8    Jets               140.4     72.4     68.0        22     12     34  
  30     4-7    Rams               136.3     70.9     65.4        31      9     40  
  31     1-10   49ers              134.8     79.3     55.5        28     32     60  
  32     0-12   Browns             129.7     74.5     55.1        30     31     61  
 
 
 
Aikman Offense Ratings Through Week 12, 2016
 
  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER
   1       4      Cowboys             98.4
   2       1      Saints              96.0
   3       3      Falcons             94.6
   4       7      Titans              93.5
   5       6      Patriots            92.0
   6       5      Raiders             91.5
   7      18      Bills               90.3
   8       2      Redskins            87.5
   9      15      Colts               86.8
  10      12      Steelers            86.8
  11      11      Packers             86.5
  12      26      Lions               86.2
  13      14      Panthers            83.8
  14       8      Chargers            82.1
  15       9      Cardinals           82.1
  16      13      Buccaneers          81.3
  17      10      Bengals             81.3
  18      25      Dolphins            81.1
  19      20      Eagles              80.7
  20      17      Seahawks            80.2
  21      28      49ers               79.3
  22      19      Broncos             78.6
  23      23.5    Jaguars             77.4
  24      21      Giants              77.4
  25      27      Chiefs              77.3
  26      16      Bears               75.3
  27      23.5    Ravens              74.8
  28      30      Browns              74.5
  29      29      Texans              73.9
  30      32      Vikings             73.5
  31      22      Jets                72.4
  32      31      Rams                70.9
 
NFL Average                           82.8
 
 
 
Aikman Defense Ratings Through Week 12, 2016
 
  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER
   1       2      Ravens              79.2
   2       1      Cardinals           74.8
   3       3      Vikings             74.5
   4       8      Eagles              74.3
   5      16      Giants              73.8
   6       7      Seahawks            73.7
   7       4      Broncos             73.7
   8      18      Steelers            72.6
   9      28      Chiefs              72.3
  10      17      Panthers            70.7
  11      20      Dolphins            69.2
  12       5      Texans              68.9
  13      12      Jets                68.0
  14      14      Patriots            67.9
 15      24      Buccaneers          67.6
  16      19      Chargers            67.5
  17      22      Titans              67.4
  18      26      Saints              66.9
  19      29      Raiders             66.9
  20      10      Bills               66.8
  21      23      Bengals             65.9
  22      11      Bears               65.8
  23       9      Rams                65.4
  24      21      Cowboys             65.4
  25       6      Jaguars             63.6
  26      15      Lions               63.1
  27      13      Packers             61.8
  28      25      Redskins            60.4
  29      30      Colts               59.1
  30      27      Falcons             56.7
  31      32      49ers               55.5
  32      31      Browns              55.1
 
NFL Average                           67.2
 
 
 
Ratings Courtesy of STATS
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