Thursday, March 30, 2017

Aikman Efficiency Ratings

28
AIKMAN RATINGS COMNENTARY
Thru Week 16
 
With one week remaining, the Packers hold the lead in the 2011 Aikman Combined Ratings, but the close proximity of the Ravens, 49ers, Saints, Patriots, Texans and Lions indicates a very competitive playoff season is ahead of us.
Interestingly, of the top 10 teams in the current Aikman Combined, the top nine are in the playoff field and the #10 Cowboys could join them.  It is not a perfect match, but the top 10 is closely aligned to the likely final seedings.
On the other hand, if you merely add up the NFL’s offensive and defensive rankings, based solely on yards gained, the leading team, the Eagles, with a combined ranking of 11, will not make the playoffs, nor will the Chargers who are third at a combined 17.

There are 17 teams with a lower combined NFL offense-defense total than the Packers (offense 5, defense 31 for 36), including the Redskins.
- - -
The Saints, Packers and Patriots have been sensational on offense this year – and at the moment stand as three of the top five teams in Aikman History which dates to 1995.

2007    New England              99.0     
2011    New Orleans              97.6
2011    Green Bay                95.9
2004    Indianapolis             94.4     
2011    New England              94.3


The falloff from these three clubs is considerable this year, down to 88.3 for the Panthers (who were 32nd last year).
- - -
The 49ers (86.0) and Ravens (84.3) continue to have the two best Aikman Defenses.  No other team is over 80.
- - -
Troy Aikman invented the Aikman Ratings because he believed offenses and defenses could be better evaluated than merely by comparing yardage totals.
This was again shown this week in two high profile games.
On Sunday night, the Packers beat the Bears, 35-21, behind another brilliant performance by Aaron Rodgers.  Yet it was the Bears, with an advantage of 441 to 363 in yards who saw their official NFL ratings for offense and defense improve compared to Green Bay’s.  The Aikman Game Ratings had it right, with a 109.4 to 84.7 advantage for the Packers.
Then on Monday, the Saints rolled over the Falcons, 45-16.  However, Atlanta was the team with the 469 to 463 edge in yards gained.  The Aikman Game Ratings had it 108.2 to 67.6 in favor of New Orleans.
Amazingly, the Packers have been outgained on the season (5,932 to 6,010) yet stand 14-1.  Flipping their defensive rating around the axis of 75.0, we can see that the Packers have an Aikman Offense advantage of 95.9 to 80.4 over their opponents’ offenses, much more in keeping with a great winning record.



Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 16, 2011

                                 --------- Aikman --------       ------- NFL --------
Rank  Record   Team             Combined     Off      Def       Off    Def  Combined
   1    14-1    Packers            165.5     95.9     69.6         5     31     36  
   2    11-4    Ravens             164.0     79.7     84.3        15      3     18  
   3    12-3    49ers              163.7     77.7     86.0        26      4     30  
   4    12-3    Saints             162.7     97.6     65.0         1     26     27  
   5    12-3    Patriots           162.2     94.3     67.9         2     32     34  
   6    10-5    Texans             161.7     82.6     79.2        12      2     14  
   7    10-5    Lions              161.5     87.0     74.5         7     20     27  
   8     9-6    Falcons            157.5     83.8     73.7        10     12     22  
   9    11-4    Steelers           155.9     81.4     74.5        11      1     12  
  10     8-7    Cowboys            155.0     83.6     71.4         9     14     23  
  11     8-7    Jets               153.3     76.8     76.5        27      7     34  
  12     6-9    Panthers           153.1     88.3     64.9         4     22     26  
  13     7-8    Bears              151.8     75.5     76.3        20     18     38  
  14     7-8    Eagles             151.7     80.5     71.2         3      8     11  
  15     7-8    Seahawks           150.4     73.3     77.1        28      9     37  
  16     8-7    Titans             150.3     78.2     72.0        17     17     34  
  17     8-7    Giants             149.8     81.2     68.6         8     28     36  
  18     5-10   Dolphins           149.6     75.3     74.3        19     16     35  
  19     9-6    Bengals            148.9     75.6     73.3        24      6     30  
  20     7-8    Chargers           148.8     83.3     65.4         6     11     17  
  21     3-12   Vikings            145.2     81.2     64.0        18     25     43  
  22     8-7    Raiders            144.2     79.0     65.3        13     29     42  
  23     5-10   Redskins           143.9     71.1     72.8        16     13     29  
  24     7-8    Cardinals          143.8     71.3     72.5        23     19     42  
  25     4-11   Browns             143.3     70.3     73.0        29     10     39  
  26     4-11   Jaguars            143.2     68.9     74.3        32      5     37  
  27     6-9    Bills              142.9     77.0     65.9        14     24     38  
  28     8-7    Broncos            141.6     73.6     68.0        22     23     45  
  29     6-9    Chiefs             137.2     66.1     71.1        25     15     40  
  30     2-13   Rams               131.0     63.5     67.6        31     21     52  
  31     4-11   Buccaneers         130.9     69.7     61.2        21     30     51  
  32     2-13   Colts              127.2     67.3     59.9        30     27     57  



Aikman Offense Ratings Through Week 16, 2011

  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER
   1       1      Saints              97.6
   2       5      Packers             95.9
   3       2      Patriots            94.3
   4       4      Panthers            88.3
   5       7      Lions               87.0
   6      10      Falcons             83.8
   7       9      Cowboys             83.6
   8       6      Chargers            83.3
   9      12      Texans              82.6
  10      11      Steelers            81.4
  11       8      Giants              81.2
  12      18      Vikings             81.2
  13       3      Eagles              80.5
  14      15      Ravens              79.7
  15      13      Raiders             79.0
  16      17      Titans              78.2
  17      26      49ers               77.7
  18      14      Bills               77.0
  19      27      Jets                76.8
  20      24      Bengals             75.6
  21      20      Bears               75.5
  22      19      Dolphins            75.3
  23      22      Broncos             73.6
  24      28      Seahawks            73.3
  25      23      Cardinals           71.3
  26      16      Redskins            71.1
  27      29      Browns              70.3
  28      21      Buccaneers          69.7
  29      32      Jaguars             68.9
  30      30      Colts               67.3
  31      25      Chiefs              66.1
  32      31      Rams                63.5

NFL Average                           78.7



Aikman Defense Ratings Through Week 16, 2011

  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER
   1       4      49ers               86.0
   2       3      Ravens              84.3
   3       2      Texans              79.2
   4       9      Seahawks            77.1
   5       7      Jets                76.5
   6      18      Bears               76.3
   7       1      Steelers            74.5
   8      20      Lions               74.5
   9      16      Dolphins            74.3
  10       5      Jaguars             74.3
  11      12      Falcons             73.7
  12       6      Bengals             73.3
  13      10      Browns              73.0
  14      13      Redskins            72.8
  15      19      Cardinals           72.5
  16      17      Titans              72.0
  17      14      Cowboys             71.4
  18       8      Eagles              71.2
  19      15      Chiefs              71.1
  20      31      Packers             69.6
  21      28      Giants              68.6
  22      23      Broncos             68.0
  23      32      Patriots            67.9
  24      21      Rams                67.6
  25      24      Bills               65.9
  26      11      Chargers            65.4
  27      29      Raiders             65.3
  28      26      Saints              65.0
  29      22      Panthers            64.9
  30      25      Vikings             64.0
  31      30      Buccaneers          61.2
  32      27      Colts               59.9

NFL Average                           71.3

Ratings Courtesy of STATS LLC
Copyright 2017 by Aikman Enterprises