Sunday, July 23, 2017

Aikman Efficiency Ratings

18
AIKMAN RATINGS
Thru Week 11
 
Things are unchanged atop the various Aikman Ratings for the third consecutive week, but they have tightened up to where a change is possible in the near future. 
 
Despite their loss to St. Louis, the Broncos remain first in the Aikman Combined and Aikman Offense Ratings, but the lead in the former is down to 1.8 points over the Packers in the Combined (from 4.5 last week) and down to 1.8 points over the Patriots in Offense.
 
The Lions lost a 14-6 game in Arizona, but they were able to hold off the Cardinals in the season-long Aikman Defense Ratings. Detroit's margin over Arizona is 0.7.
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This remains a very tightly-bunched season.  In most years, the Aikman Combined leader hits 170.0 or higher as the Seahawks did last year at 171.4.  
 
The Broncos are nearly 5 points off that pace and there are five other teams at 160 or above.
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Comparing this season’s Broncos offense with last year – the 2013 Denver attack finished with a record score of 99.8.  They were near that pace a few weeks ago, but have fallen back to 95.1.
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The Aikman Ratings exist in part because of the belief that they better measure the things that produce victory than merely who gets the most yards as does the NFL’s longtime yards only method of rating offenses and defenses.
 
Historically, the team with the higher Aikman Game Rating does the things that end up winning the game from their opponent about 83% of the time, while the team that gains more yards triumphs about 68% of the time.
 
For the first 7 weeks of the season, that traditional rate was lagging behind in 2014.  At that point teams with higher Aikman Game Ratings were winning at only a 74% clip.  
 
But that has changed in a big way in the last 4 weeks, as teams with the higher Aikman Game Rating are 54-1, with an undefeated score of 40-0 in the last three weeks.  It puts the season winning percentage back up at its traditional 83%.
 
That’s three consecutive undefeated weeks after having only six in recorded Aikman history which goes back to 2005.

  
 
Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 11, 2014
 
                                 --------- Aikman --------       ------- NFL --------
Rank  Record   Team             Combined     Off      Def       Off    Def  Combined
   1     7-3    Broncos            166.1     95.1     71.0         3      5      8  
   2     7-3    Packers            164.3     92.1     72.2         9     25     34  
   3     7-3    Chiefs             162.6     90.3     72.2        23      8     31  
   4     8-2    Patriots           161.2     93.3     68.0         7.5   16     23.5
   5     6-4    Ravens             161.1     84.6     76.5        12     11     23  
   6     9-1    Cardinals          160.0     81.8     78.2        20     13     33  
   7     7-3    Cowboys            157.0     88.6     68.4         6     15     21  
   8     6-4    Dolphins           156.5     79.6     76.9        16      2     18  
   9     6-4    Seahawks           155.9     89.1     66.9        11      3     14  
  10     5-5    Texans             155.6     81.0     74.5        15     30     45  
  11     7-3    Lions              154.9     76.0     78.9        21      1     22  
  12     6-4    Browns             154.9     81.5     73.4        14     22     36  
  13     6-4    Colts              153.0     89.9     63.2         1     24     25  
  14     4-6    Saints             151.2     90.4     60.7         2     20     22  
  15     6-3-1  Bengals            151.0     82.8     68.2        17     28     45  
  16     6-4    Chargers           150.1     85.1     65.0        22      9     31  
  17     7-4    Steelers           150.1     84.2     66.0         5     14     19  
  18     6-4    49ers              150.0     77.2     72.8        18      4     22  
  19     4-6    Falcons            148.3     85.3     63.0        10     32     42  
  20     5-5    Bills              147.8     73.0     74.8        25      6     31  
  21     7-3    Eagles             146.9     77.7     69.2         4     26     30  
  22     4-6    Bears              146.4     81.2     65.2        13     19     32  
  23     3-7    Redskins           145.3     79.4     65.9         7.5   10     17.5
  24     4-6    Vikings            144.9     76.4     68.4        30     12     42  
  25     4-6    Rams               143.7     74.9     68.8        29     17     46  
  26     3-7    Giants             143.1     78.4     64.6        19     31     50  
  27     3-7-1  Panthers           138.1     76.0     62.1        24     23     47  
  28     2-8    Titans             137.5     75.2     62.2        31     21     52  
  29     2-8    Jets               137.1     74.5     62.6        26      7     33  
  30     1-9    Jaguars            136.6     69.4     67.2        27     29     56  
  31     0-10   Raiders            136.4     72.5     63.8        32     18     50  
  32     2-8    Buccaneers         134.0     72.0     62.0        28     27     55  
 
 
 
Aikman Offense Ratings Through Week 11, 2014
 
  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER
   1       3      Broncos             95.1
   2       7.5    Patriots            93.3
   3       9      Packers             92.1
   4       2      Saints              90.4
   5      23      Chiefs              90.3
   6       1      Colts               89.9
   7      11      Seahawks            89.1
   8       6      Cowboys             88.6
   9      10      Falcons             85.3
  10      22      Chargers            85.1
  11      12      Ravens              84.6
  12       5      Steelers            84.2
  13      17      Bengals             82.8
  14      20      Cardinals           81.8
  15      14      Browns              81.5
  16      13      Bears               81.2
  17      15      Texans              81.0
  18      16      Dolphins            79.6
  19       7.5    Redskins            79.4
  20      19      Giants              78.4
  21       4      Eagles              77.7
  22      18      49ers               77.2
  23      30      Vikings             76.4
  24      24      Panthers            76.0
  25      21      Lions               76.0
  26      31      Titans              75.2
  27      29      Rams                74.9
  28      26      Jets                74.5
  29      25      Bills               73.0
  30      32      Raiders             72.5
  31      28      Buccaneers          72.0
  32      27      Jaguars             69.4
 
NFL Average                           81.5
 
 
 
Aikman Defense Ratings Through Week 11, 2014
 
  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER
   1       1      Lions               78.9
   2      13      Cardinals           78.2
   3       2      Dolphins            76.9
   4      11      Ravens              76.5
   5       6      Bills               74.8
   6      30      Texans              74.5
   7      22      Browns              73.4
   8       4      49ers               72.8
   9       8      Chiefs              72.2
  10      25      Packers             72.2
  11       5      Broncos             71.0
  12      26      Eagles              69.2
  13      17      Rams                68.8
  14      12      Vikings             68.4
  15      15      Cowboys             68.4
  16      28      Bengals             68.2
  17      16      Patriots            68.0
  18      29      Jaguars             67.2
  19       3      Seahawks            66.9
  20      14      Steelers            66.0
  21      10      Redskins            65.9
  22      19      Bears               65.2
  23       9      Chargers            65.0
  24      31      Giants              64.6
  25      18      Raiders             63.8
  26      24      Colts               63.2
  27      32      Falcons             63.0
  28       7      Jets                62.6
  29      21      Titans              62.2
  30      23      Panthers            62.1
  31      27      Buccaneers          62.0
  32      20      Saints              60.7
 
NFL Average                           68.5
 
 

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