Thursday, September 21, 2017

Aikman Efficiency Ratings

26
AIKMAN RATINGS
Thru Week 12
 
The five-week run of the Denver Broncos atop the Aikman Combined Ratings has come to an end, with the Green Bay Packers sliding one-point ahead through 12 weeks of the NFL season.
 
Denver is second with the Patriots, Ravens and Chiefs rounding out a top five that has four AFC teams.  
 
The Broncos continue atop the Aikman Offense standings for the sixth straight week, but the Packers and Patriots are in hot pursuit.  Denver, New England and Green Bay represent the top three teams in both the Aikman Combined and Aikman Offense Ratings, although in different orders.
 
There is also a new team atop the Aikman Defense Ratings, as the Cardinals have ended the three-week run of the Lions.  Coming up fast are the Bills, who moved into 2nd place ahead of Detroit after a dominant effort against the Jets.
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Each year certain units identify themselves as “Aikman” offenses and “Aikman” defenses – teams that perform better than the ranking they receive from the NFL, which merely totals yards gained and does not consider other factors such as turnovers and timeliness which the Aikman Ratings take into account.
 
At the moment the top “Aikman” offenses, as identified by the number of rankings spots they outperform their NFL yards-only listing, are the Chiefs (+17, 6th instead of 23rd), Chargers (+8, 12th instead of 20th) and Vikings (+8, 22nd instead of 30th).
 
The top “Aikman” defenses have an even greater variant, led by the Texans (+24, 5th instead of 29th).  Other “Aikman” defenses are the Eagles (+15, 11th instead of 26th), the Packers (+14, 9th instead of 23rd) and Jaguars (+13, 17th instead of 30th).
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The Aikman Offense and Defense Ratings are flip sides of the same formula that rotates around the number 75.  So when the Broncos have a score of 95.7, it means their opponent defenses have performed at a collective level of 54.3.
 
In recent years, the NFL has moved up from a traditional average of 75 to a number north of 80 (81.4 so far in 2014), which has pushed the average defense below 70.
 
One thing that we have noticed is that the range between offenses is significantly greater than the range between defenses.
 
At the moment, the Broncos are the top offense at 95.7, 28.8 points better than the last-place Jaguars offense at 66.9.  
 
The spread on defense, between the Cardinals (78.8) and Saints (59.8), is only 19.0.
 
If you take the top and bottom eight teams on each side of the ball, the range is 17.5 on offense (91.0 vs. 73.5) compared to 12.5 on defense (74.9 to 62.4).  The strength of a strong offense carries more impact on the ratings than a stronger defense.  
 
Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 12, 2014
 
                                 --------- Aikman --------       ------- NFL --------
Rank  Record   Team             Combined     Off      Def       Off    Def  Combined
   1     8-3    Packers            165.0     93.2     71.8         9     23     32  
   2     8-3    Broncos            164.0     95.7     68.3         3      6      9  
   3     9-2    Patriots           162.8     93.7     69.1         7     14     21  
   4     7-4    Ravens             160.7     86.0     74.8         8     15     23  
   5     7-4    Chiefs             159.8     89.0     70.8        23      8     31  
   6     9-2    Cardinals          158.5     79.7     78.8        25     11     36  
   7     8-3    Cowboys            156.6     89.6     67.0         6     16     22  
   8     7-4    Seahawks           156.3     87.4     68.8        13      1     14  
   9     6-5    Dolphins           155.7     82.0     73.7        17      5     22  
  10     7-4    Colts              155.0     88.5     66.4         1     17     18  
  11     7-4    Browns             153.2     80.8     72.5        10     20     30  
  12     7-3-1  Bengals            153.2     82.7     70.5        15     24     39  
  13     5-6    Texans             152.2     78.4     73.8        18     29     47  
  14     6-5    Bills              152.0     75.7     76.3        24      4     28  
  15     7-4    Lions              151.4     75.3     76.2        21      3     24  
  16     4-7    Saints             150.3     90.5     59.8         2     27     29  
  17     7-4    Chargers           150.2     83.4     66.8        20      9     29  
  18     7-4    Steelers           150.1     84.2     66.0         5     13     18  
  19     8-3    Eagles             149.9     79.3     70.7         4     26     30  
  20     4-7    Falcons            149.8     85.7     64.1        12     32     44  
  21     7-4    49ers              149.3     75.8     73.5        19      2     21  
  22     5-6    Bears              148.6     81.1     67.6        16     21     37  
  23     3-8    Redskins           146.3     78.4     67.9        11     10     21  
  24     4-7    Rams               144.4     74.2     70.2        27     19     46  
  25     3-8    Giants             143.7     80.2     63.5        14     31     45  
  26     4-7    Vikings            143.4     77.3     66.1        30     12     42  
  27     1-10   Raiders            140.0     75.3     64.8        32     18     50  
  28     3-7-1  Panthers           138.1     76.0     62.1        22     25     47  
  29     2-9    Titans             136.0     74.1     61.8        28     28     56  
  30     1-10   Jaguars            135.0     66.9     68.0        31     30     61  
  31     2-9    Jets               134.0     72.9     61.0        29      7     36  
  32     2-9    Buccaneers         133.6     70.8     62.7        26     22     48  
 
 
 
Aikman Offense Ratings Through Week 12, 2014
 
  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER
   1       3      Broncos             95.7
   2       7      Patriots            93.7
   3       9      Packers             93.2
   4       2      Saints              90.5
   5       6      Cowboys             89.6
   6      23      Chiefs              89.0
   7       1      Colts               88.5
   8      13      Seahawks            87.4
   9       8      Ravens              86.0
  10      12      Falcons             85.7
  11       5      Steelers            84.2
  12      20      Chargers            83.4
  13      15      Bengals             82.7
  14      17      Dolphins            82.0
  15      16      Bears               81.1
  16      10      Browns              80.8
  17      14      Giants              80.2
  18      25      Cardinals           79.7
  19       4      Eagles              79.3
  20      11      Redskins            78.4
  21      18      Texans              78.4
  22      30      Vikings             77.3
  23      22      Panthers            76.0
  24      19      49ers               75.8
  25      24      Bills               75.7
  26      21      Lions               75.3
  27      32      Raiders             75.3
  28      27      Rams                74.2
  29      28      Titans              74.1
  30      29      Jets                72.9
  31      26      Buccaneers          70.8
  32      31      Jaguars             66.9
 
NFL Average                           81.4
 
 
 
Aikman Defense Ratings Through Week 12, 2014
 
  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER
   1      11      Cardinals           78.8
   2       4      Bills               76.3
   3       3      Lions               76.2
   4      15      Ravens              74.8
   5      29      Texans              73.8
   6       5      Dolphins            73.7
   7       2      49ers               73.5
   8      20      Browns              72.5
   9      23      Packers             71.8
  10       8      Chiefs              70.8
  11      26      Eagles              70.7
  12      24      Bengals             70.5
  13      19      Rams                70.2
  14      14      Patriots            69.1
  15       1      Seahawks            68.8
  16       6      Broncos             68.3
  17      30      Jaguars             68.0
  18      10      Redskins            67.9
  19      21      Bears               67.6
  20      16      Cowboys             67.0
  21       9      Chargers            66.8
  22      17      Colts               66.4
  23      12      Vikings             66.1
  24      13      Steelers            66.0
  25      18      Raiders             64.8
  26      32      Falcons             64.1
  27      31      Giants              63.5
  28      22      Buccaneers          62.7
  29      25      Panthers            62.1
  30      28      Titans              61.8
  31       7      Jets                61.0
  32      27      Saints              59.8
 
NFL Average                           68.6
 
 
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