Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Aikman Efficiency Ratings

21

AIKMAN RATINGS

THRU WEEK 6

 

The first battle of 2015 between the Jets and Patriots at Foxborough does not need any more hype – but it is the meeting of the top Aikman Offense (#2 NFL yards only) in the Patriots and a Jets defense that leads both the Aikman and NFL rankings.

 

The two AFC East powers, one the longtime king of the hill, the other rising fast under new coach Todd Bowles, are also the top two teams in the Aikman Combined Ratings.

 

It is the fourth consecutive week that the Patriots have been in first place in Aikman Offense and their margin has risen to 9.6 points over the second-place Bengals. 

 

At 104.5, they once again are in position to challenge the Aikman Offense season record of 99.8 set by the 2013 Denver Broncos.  There have been six offensive units with annual scores of 95 plus – and New England teams helmed by Tom Brady have been three of them.  But last year the Patriots fell off their usual pace to “just” 89.9.

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When the Aikman Ratings came into existence in 2005, the previous 10 years of NFL football had seen a consistent level of performance and both the Aikman Offense and Aikman Defense were balanced around an average score of 75.  The thought was that an exceptional unit on either side would do well to reach the 90s, with 100 representing record performance across the board in all seven categories.

 

Things have changed in the intervening decade and NFL teams now average over 80 on offense on the Aikman scale and below 70 on defense. 

 

There also seems to be a greater variance among offensive performance.  For example, last year there were three offenses that topped the NFL Aikman average of 80.4 by more than 10 points.  Yet the best defense, belonging to the Texans, was only 8.2 points above the NFL Aikman average of 69.6.

 

All of which is to point out how extraordinarily well the Jets, at 95.1, (and the Broncos, now 88.7, to a lesser extent) have defended in 2015 compared to their contemporaries.

 

While 77.8 led the NFL in 2014, the Jets at 95.1 are 17.3 points above that mark.  They are looking to become the first team since the 2006 Ravens to top 90.  The Super Bowl-winning Seahawks of 2013 are the best defense in recent years at 87.0.

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Every week does not work out the way Week 6 did, but teams with higher Aikman Game Ratings were 12-2 (the Browns in overtime and the Colts in confusion being the losers). 

 

On the other hand, teams that gained more yards in their game went just 6-8 - with the Bengals, Saints, Texans and Steelers standing as teams that were outgained in yards, but still won by double digits in points and had higher Aikman Game Ratings.

 

On the year, teams with higher Aikman Game Ratings have won 84.6% of their games while teams that gained more yards (to the advantage of their official NFL yards-only offensive and defensive ratings) have won just 64.5% of the time.

 

We remind you that Troy Aikman conceived the Aikman Ratings with the idea that winning football games through effective offense and defense is determined by other factors than just how many yards are totaled.  Or in other words, who gains the most yards is not the best determinant of who wins the game and which team is running the most efficient offense. 

 

 

 

Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 6, 2015

 

                                 --------- Aikman --------       ------- NFL --------

Rank  Record   Team             Combined     Off      Def       Off    Def  Combined

   1     4-1    Jets               182.8     87.7     95.1         8      1      9 

   2     5-0    Patriots           170.0    104.9     65.1         2     17     19 

   3     4-2    Cardinals          168.0     92.8     75.2         5      6     11 

   4     6-0    Bengals            166.0     95.3     70.7         3     21     24 

   5     6-0    Packers            164.6     90.1     74.5        10.5   16     26.5

   6     5-0    Panthers           162.8     85.3     77.5        28      7     35 

   7     4-2    Steelers           162.1     91.7     70.4        17     23     40 

   8     6-0    Broncos            158.8     70.1     88.7        29      2     31 

   9     5-1    Falcons            158.7     92.4     66.3         4     20     24 

  10     3-3    Eagles             153.1     74.6     78.5        13     15     28 

  11     2-3    Raiders            152.2     82.4     69.9        23     26     49 

  12     3-2    Vikings            151.6     76.1     75.6        31     13     44 

  13     3-3    Giants             150.5     79.7     70.8        14     28     42 

  14     3-3    Bills              150.3     82.0     68.3        27     18     45 

  15     2-4    Redskins           148.6     76.7     71.9        25      8     33 

  16     2-4    Chargers           147.6     82.6     65.0         1     14     15 

  17     2-4    Seahawks           147.5     75.8     71.7        15      4     19 

  18     1-4    Titans             146.2     79.9     66.3        22      3     25 

  19     1-5    Ravens             145.2     80.8     64.4         9     25     34 

  20     2-3    Rams               144.6     70.0     74.5        32     10     42 

  21     2-4    Texans             144.2     80.4     63.8         6     11     17 

  22     2-3    Dolphins           142.9     75.9     66.9        24     24     48 

  23     3-3    Colts              142.0     80.0     62.1        19     29     48 

  24     2-4    Saints             141.8     82.1     59.7         7     32     39 

  25     2-3    Cowboys            141.4     79.4     62.0        18     12     30 

  26     2-4    Bears              139.8     78.6     61.2        26      9     35 

  27     2-4    Browns             138.6     76.2     62.4        10.5   30     40.5

  28     1-5    Lions              137.3     74.0     63.3        12     27     39 

  29     1-5    Chiefs             136.2     74.2     62.0        20     22     42 

  30     2-3    Buccaneers         136.1     74.2     61.9        21      5     26 

  31     1-5    Jaguars            136.1     77.8     58.3        16     19     35 

  32     2-4    49ers              133.5     74.1     59.4        30     31     61 

 

 

 

Aikman Offense Ratings Through Week 6, 2015

 

  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER

   1       2      Patriots           104.9

   2       3      Bengals             95.3

   3       5      Cardinals           92.8

   4       4      Falcons             92.4

   5      17      Steelers            91.7

   6      10.5    Packers             90.1

   7       8      Jets                87.7

   8      28      Panthers            85.3

   9       1      Chargers            82.6

  10      23      Raiders             82.4

  11       7      Saints              82.1

  12      27      Bills               82.0

  13       9      Ravens              80.8

  14       6      Texans              80.4

  15      19      Colts               80.0

  16      22      Titans              79.9

  17      14      Giants              79.7

  18      18      Cowboys             79.4

  19      26      Bears               78.6

  20      16      Jaguars             77.8

  21      25      Redskins            76.7

  22      10.5    Browns              76.2

  23      31      Vikings             76.1

  24      24      Dolphins            75.9

  25      15      Seahawks            75.8

  26      13      Eagles              74.6

  27      21      Buccaneers          74.2

  28      20      Chiefs              74.2

  29      30      49ers               74.1

  30      12      Lions               74.0

  31      29      Broncos             70.1

  32      32      Rams                70.0

 

NFL Average                           81.4

 

 

 

Aikman Defense Ratings Through Week 6, 2015

 

  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER

   1       1      Jets                95.1

   2       2      Broncos             88.7

   3      15      Eagles              78.5

   4       7      Panthers            77.5

   5      13      Vikings             75.6

   6       6      Cardinals           75.2

   7      10      Rams                74.5

   8      16      Packers             74.5

   9       8      Redskins            71.9

  10       4      Seahawks            71.7

  11      28      Giants              70.8

  12      21      Bengals             70.7

  13      23      Steelers            70.4

  14      26      Raiders             69.9

  15      18      Bills               68.3

  16      24      Dolphins            66.9

  17       3      Titans              66.3

  18      20      Falcons             66.3

  19      17      Patriots            65.1

  20      14      Chargers            65.0

  21      25      Ravens              64.4

  22      11      Texans              63.8

  23      27      Lions               63.3

  24      30      Browns              62.4

  25      29      Colts               62.1

  26      22      Chiefs              62.0

  27      12      Cowboys             62.0

  28       5      Buccaneers          61.9

  29       9      Bears               61.2

  30      32      Saints              59.7

  31      31      49ers               59.4

  32      19      Jaguars             58.3

 

NFL Average                           68.6

 

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