Sunday, July 23, 2017

Aikman Efficiency Ratings

01

AIKMAN RATINGS

Thru Week 12

 

There is no change for the leaders in the three Aikman Ratings categories after Week 12.  The Panthers remain 1st in Aikman Combined, the Patriots lead Aikman Offense and the Jets are atop Aikman Defense.

 

The Patriots have had the Aikman Offense lead since Week 3, but the Cardinals have closed New England’s once huge advantage to 2.9 points.  It was 4.3 points after Week 11.

 

The Jets are on top in Aikman Defense, but the Panthers are the team to watch.  In 4th place just two weeks ago, they have risen to 2nd, just 0.7 points behind New York.

 

The Jets continue to perform better than their record, moving past New England into 2nd in Aikman Combined this week although New York is just 6-5 on the year.  The Seahawks and Chiefs are two other 6-5 teams whose Aikman Combined scores rival the five NFL teams with nine wins or more.

 

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It doesn’t always work out this perfectly, but we went into the Monday night game with the teams having a higher Aikman Game Score 15-0 on the weekend.  Then the Ravens, slightly behind the Browns in Aikman Game Score, scored on the blocked field goal return which is not part of Aikman Ratings tracking and we had a 15-1 week.

 

Troy Aikman founded the Aikman Ratings based on the belief that the mere gaining of yards, while important, is not a primary determinant of wins and losses.  Yet the NFL only measures offensive and defensive ratings by total yards.

 

We contend that the seven elements of the Aikman Ratings produce a better blend to determine winners.  This year, teams with higher Aikman Game Scores have won 82.4% of the games, while teams that gain more yards are the winners only 65.5% of the time.  That is consistent with the average over the 11 years it has been tracked.

 

 

 

Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 12, 2015

 

                                 --------- Aikman --------       ------- NFL --------

Rank  Record   Team             Combined     Off      Def       Off    Def  Combined

   1    11-0    Panthers           170.0     88.6     81.4        17      2     19 

   2     6-5    Jets               168.2     86.1     82.1        14      3     17 

   3    10-1    Patriots           165.4     94.9     70.4         2     16     18 

   4     9-2    Bengals            164.7     89.5     75.2         7     15     22 

   5     9-2    Cardinals          163.7     92.0     71.7         1      5      6 

   6     6-5    Seahawks           159.2     84.6     74.6         8      4     12 

   7     6-5    Chiefs             156.9     85.3     71.7        16     10     26 

   8     9-2    Broncos            156.1     75.3     80.8        21      1     22 

   9     8-3    Vikings            155.7     80.7     75.1        28      9     37 

  10     7-4    Packers            154.9     85.5     69.4        24     21     45 

  11     6-5    Steelers           154.9     84.7     70.1         4     23     27 

  12     6-5    Texans             153.1     79.5     73.6        13      6     19 

  13     6-5    Falcons            151.9     83.0     68.9         5     11     16 

  14     5-6    Bills              150.8     80.7     70.1        19     19     38 

  15     5-6    Raiders            149.7     84.5     65.2        10     27     37 

  16     5-6    Buccaneers         148.0     81.8     66.2         9     12     21 

  17     5-6    Redskins           147.2     79.5     67.8        25     22     47 

  18     3-8    Chargers           147.0     84.2     62.9         6     24     30 

  19     4-7    Rams               146.9     70.1     76.8        31     13     44 

  20     5-6    Giants             146.4     79.6     66.8        15     32     47 

  21     5-6    Bears              146.2     78.3     67.9        20     14     34 

  22     4-7    Ravens             145.7     79.2     66.5        11     17     28 

  23     6-5    Colts              144.8     78.7     66.1        22     26     48 

  24     3-8    Cowboys            144.2     77.2     67.0        29      8     37 

  25     2-9    Titans             143.0     74.9     68.1        30      7     37 

  26     4-7    Saints             141.8     84.3     57.5         3     31     34 

  27     4-7    Lions              140.4     78.3     62.1        23     18     41 

  28     4-7    Eagles             140.3     75.9     64.4        12     25     37 

  29     4-7    Dolphins           138.7     76.3     62.4        27     28     55 

  30     4-7    Jaguars            137.0     75.3     61.7        18     20     38 

  31     2-9    Browns             135.5     71.8     63.7        26     30     56 

  32     3-8    49ers              130.8     70.6     60.1        32     29     61 

 

 

 

Aikman Offense Ratings Through Week 12, 2015

 

  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER

   1       2      Patriots            94.9

   2       1      Cardinals           92.0

   3       7      Bengals             89.5

   4      17      Panthers            88.6

   5      14      Jets                86.1

   6      24      Packers             85.5

   7      16      Chiefs              85.3

   8       4      Steelers            84.7

   9       8      Seahawks            84.6

  10      10      Raiders             84.5

  11       3      Saints              84.3

  12       6      Chargers            84.2

  13       5      Falcons             83.0

  14       9      Buccaneers          81.8

  15      19      Bills               80.7

  16      28      Vikings             80.7

  17      15      Giants              79.6

  18      13      Texans              79.5

  19      25      Redskins            79.5

  20      11      Ravens              79.2

  21      22      Colts               78.7

  22      23      Lions               78.3

  23      20      Bears               78.3

  24      29      Cowboys             77.2

  25      27      Dolphins            76.3

  26      12      Eagles              75.9

  27      18      Jaguars             75.3

  28      21      Broncos             75.3

  29      30      Titans              74.9

  30      26      Browns              71.8

  31      32      49ers               70.6

  32      31      Rams                70.1

 

NFL Average                           81.2

 

 

 

Aikman Defense Ratings Through Week 12, 2015

 

  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER

   1       3      Jets                82.1

   2       2      Panthers            81.4

   3       1      Broncos             80.8

   4      13      Rams                76.8

   5      15      Bengals             75.2

   6       9      Vikings             75.1

   7       4      Seahawks            74.6

   8       6      Texans              73.6

   9       5      Cardinals           71.7

  10      10      Chiefs              71.7

  11      16      Patriots            70.4

  12      23      Steelers            70.1

  13      19      Bills               70.1

  14      21      Packers             69.4

  15      11      Falcons             68.9

  16       7      Titans              68.1

  17      14      Bears               67.9

  18      22      Redskins            67.8

  19       8      Cowboys             67.0

  20      32      Giants              66.8

  21      17      Ravens              66.5

  22      12      Buccaneers          66.2

  23      26      Colts               66.1

  24      27      Raiders             65.2

  25      25      Eagles              64.4

  26      30      Browns              63.7

  27      24      Chargers            62.9

  28      28      Dolphins            62.4

  29      18      Lions               62.1

  30      20      Jaguars             61.7

  31      29      49ers               60.1

  32      31      Saints              57.5

 

NFL Average                           68.8

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