Sunday, May 28, 2017

Aikman Efficiency Ratings

05

FINAL 2015 AIKMAN RATINGS

 

With a season-ending romp over the Buccaneers, the Panthers head into the playoffs with an NFL-best 15-1 record, the top seed in the NFC and the 2015 Aikman Combined championship.

 

Carolina pulled ahead of the Jets in Aikman Combined in the final week of the season, while also moving ahead of faltering Arizona for the Aikman Offense title.

 

The NFL, which only considers yards gained in calculating its offensive rankings, considers the Panthers to be only 11th best, but the Aikmans, which measure seven important factors, tell a different tale.

 

Carolina led the NFL in Offensive Points and Points per Red-Zone Possession and finished in the top half in all seven offensive categories.

 

The Panthers become the first team that did not finish in the top 10 in the NFL’s yards gained measurement to lead a season in Aikman Offense.  They also did not lead at the end of any week during the season except after Week 17.

 

While three late turnovers cost the Jets a playoff spot and quite possibly the Aikman Combined title, they did finish first on Aikman Defense.  The Jets took over first on defense from the Broncos in Week 9 and never looked back.

- - -

Even though none of the individual Aikman Offenses challenged the all-time record of the 2013 Broncos (99.8), offense in general continued to grow with the league average increasing for the sixth straight year to 81.2.  The Aikman Ratings were designed around an historic league average of 75.0 in the period 1995-2004, but in the second decade of Aikman history the balance has shifted firmly to the offense.

 

Still, Carolina’s winning 92.2 score only ranks 17th in 21 seasons of Aikman Ratings archives.

- - -

As usual, more teams won games that had a higher Aikman Game Score than did teams that gained more yards.  The final total was 82.4 percent wins for better Aikman Game Scores and 65.0 percent for teams gaining more yards.  This is in line with historical averages.

- - -

With the narrow exception of the Jets, the Aikman Combined Ratings did identify the 2015 playoff field.  Twelve of the top 13 teams in the final Aikman Combined made the playoffs. 

 

However, the Aikman Combineds do not line up particularly closely to the seedings in some cases.  The Broncos, the top seed in the AFC, are 10th among postseason teams, while the Seahawks, 6th seeds in the NFC, are third overall and second highest of the teams in the playoffs.

 

The Aikman Combined Ratings have three NFC teams (Panthers, Seahawks and Cardinals) atop the playoff field followed by five AFC teams.

 

Strong late surges that carried the Texans and Redskins to titles in wins-challenged divisions have also brought both teams to a level that makes them legitimately playoff worthy (Houston 9th overall and Washington 12th).

 

 

 

 

Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 17, 2015

 

                                 --------- Aikman --------       ------- NFL --------

Rank  Record   Team             Combined     Off      Def       Off    Def  Combined

   1    15-1    Panthers           171.8     92.2     79.6        11      6     17 

   2    10-6    Jets               169.2     85.8     83.5        10      4     14 

   3    10-6    Seahawks           167.8     89.0     78.8         4      2      6 

   4    13-3    Cardinals          167.4     91.4     75.9         1      5      6 

   5    12-4    Bengals            162.6     87.4     75.2        15     11     26 

   6    12-4    Patriots           161.8     90.6     71.2         6      9     15 

   7    10-6    Steelers           160.5     86.1     74.4         3     21     24 

   8    11-5    Chiefs             158.8     84.7     74.1        27      7     34 

   9     9-7    Texans             156.3     79.9     76.4        19      3     22 

  10    11-5    Vikings            155.4     81.7     73.7        29     13     42 

  11    12-4    Broncos            153.8     76.0     77.8        16      1     17 

  12     9-7    Redskins           151.5     83.7     67.7        17     28     45 

  13    10-6    Packers            150.7     80.1     70.6        23     15     38 

  14     8-8    Bills              149.7     81.4     68.3        13     19     32 

  15     7-9    Raiders            149.3     80.8     68.5        24     22     46 

  16     4-12   Chargers           148.0     81.7     66.4         9     20     29 

  17     8-8    Falcons            147.2     80.4     66.8         7     16     23 

  18     7-9    Lions              146.8     82.9     63.9        20     18     38 

  19     7-9    Rams               145.4     72.3     73.1        32     23     55 

  20     6-10   Buccaneers         144.8     81.7     63.1         5     10     15 

  21     6-10   Bears              144.0     79.7     64.3        21     14     35 

  22     7-9    Saints             143.6     87.4     56.2         2     31     33 

  23     6-10   Giants             143.4     80.3     63.1         8     32     40 

  24     5-11   Ravens             143.2     76.4     66.8        14      8     22 

  25     4-12   Cowboys            140.7     73.7     67.0        22     17     39 

  26     7-9    Eagles             140.2     78.3     61.9        12     30     42 

  27     5-11   Jaguars            139.8     78.3     61.6        18     24     42 

  28     8-8    Colts              139.6     74.1     65.6        28     26     54 

  29     6-10   Dolphins           138.9     75.8     63.1        26     25     51 

  30     3-13   Titans             138.4     74.2     64.2        30     12     42 

  31     3-13   Browns             135.4     72.4     63.0        25     27     52 

  32     5-11   49ers              133.2     71.8     61.4        31     29     60 

 

 

 

Aikman Offense Ratings Through Week 17, 2015

 

  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER

   1      11      Panthers            92.2

   2       1      Cardinals           91.4

   3       6      Patriots            90.6

   4       4      Seahawks            89.0

   5      15      Bengals             87.4

   6       2      Saints              87.4

   7       3      Steelers            86.1

   8      10      Jets                85.8

   9      27      Chiefs              84.7

  10      17      Redskins            83.7

  11      20      Lions               82.9

  12       5      Buccaneers          81.7

  13      29      Vikings             81.7

  14       9      Chargers            81.7

  15      13      Bills               81.4

  16      24      Raiders             80.8

  17       7      Falcons             80.4

  18       8      Giants              80.3

  19      23      Packers             80.1

  20      19      Texans              79.9

  21      21      Bears               79.7

  22      12      Eagles              78.3

  23      18      Jaguars             78.3

  24      14      Ravens              76.4

  25      16      Broncos             76.0

  26      26      Dolphins            75.8

  27      30      Titans              74.2

  28      28      Colts               74.1

  29      22      Cowboys             73.7

  30      25      Browns              72.4

  31      32      Rams                72.3

  32      31      49ers               71.8

 

NFL Average                           81.2

 

 

 

Aikman Defense Ratings Through Week 17, 2015

 

  Aik     NFL     Team                 AER

  1       4      Jets                83.5

   2       6      Panthers            79.6

   3       2      Seahawks            78.8

   4       1      Broncos             77.8

   5       3      Texans              76.4

   6       5      Cardinals           75.9

   7      11      Bengals             75.2

   8      21      Steelers            74.4

   9       7      Chiefs              74.1

  10      13      Vikings             73.7

  11      23      Rams                73.1

  12       9      Patriots            71.2

  13      15      Packers             70.6

  14      22      Raiders             68.5

  15      19      Bills               68.3

  16      28      Redskins            67.7

  17      17      Cowboys             67.0

  18      16      Falcons             66.8

  19       8      Ravens              66.8

  20      20      Chargers            66.4

  21      26      Colts               65.6

  22      14      Bears               64.3

  23      12      Titans              64.2

  24      18      Lions               63.9

  25      25      Dolphins            63.1

  26      32      Giants              63.1

  27      10      Buccaneers          63.1

  28      27      Browns              63.0

  29      30      Eagles              61.9

  30      24      Jaguars             61.6

  31      29      49ers               61.4

  32      31      Saints              56.2

 

NFL Average                           68.8

 

Copyright 2017 by Aikman Enterprises